Spatial epidemiology of the Asian honey bee mite (Varroa destructor) in the North Island of New Zealand

We describe the spatial epidemiology of Varroa destructor infestation among honey bee apiaries in the greater Auckland area of the North Island of New Zealand. The study population was comprised of 641 apiaries located within the boundaries of the study area on 11 April 2000. Cases were those members of the study population declared Varroa-infested on the basis of testing conducted between April and June 2000. The odds of Varroa was highest in apiaries in the area surrounding transport and storage facilities in the vicinity of Auckland International Airport. A mixed-effects geostatistical model, accounting for spatial extra-binomial variation in Varroa prevalence, showed a 17% reduction in the odds of an apiary being Varroa infested for each kilometre increase in the squared distance from the likely site of incursion (95% Bayesian credible interval 7–28%). The pattern of spatially autocorrelated risk that remained after controlling for the effect of distance from the likely incursion site identified areas thought to be ‘secondary’ foci of Varroa infestation initiated by beekeeper-assisted movement of infested bees. Targeted investigations within these identified areas indicated that the maximum rate of local spread of Varroa was in the order of 12 km/year (interquartile range 10–15 km/year).     

The influence of sampling scheme and interpolation method on the power to detect spatial effects of forest birds in Ontario (Canada)

Spatial ecology is becoming an increasingly important component of resource management, and the general monitoring of how human activities affect the distribution and abundance of wildlife. Yet most work on the reliability of sampling strategies is based on a non-spatial analysis of variance paradigm, and little work has been done assessing the power of alternative spatial methods for creating reliable maps of animal abundance. Such a map forms a critical response variable for multiple scale studies relating landscape structure to biotic function. The power to reconstruct patterns of distribution and abundance is influenced by sample placement strategy and density, the nature of spatial auto-correlation among points, and by the technique used to extrapolate points into an animal abundance map. Faced with uncertainty concerning the influence of these factors, we chose to first synthesize a model reference system of known properties and then evaluate the relative performance of alternative sampling and mapping procedures using it. We used published habitat associations of tree nesting boreal neo-tropical birds, a classified habitat map from the Manitou Lakes area of northwestern Ontario, and point count means and variances determined from field studies in boreal Canada to create 4 simulated models of avian abundance to function as reference maps. Four point sampling strategies were evaluated by 4 spatial mapping methods. We found mixed-cluster sampling to be an effective point sampling strategy, particularly when high habitat fragmentation was avoided by restricting samples to habitat patches >10 ha in size. We also found that of the 4 mapping methods, only stratified ordinary point kriging (OPK) was able to generate maps that reproduced an embedded landscape-scale spatial effect that reduced nesting bird abundance in areas of higher forest age-class fragmentation. Global OPK was effective only for detecting broader, regional-scale differences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

河西走廊典型绿洲景观格局比较研究--以张掖、临泽、高台、酒泉为例

以地处河西走廊的张掖、临泽、高台和酒泉等县 /市级行政区为景观单元 ,利用LandsetTM影像资料的目视解译 ,在ArcView 3.1和景观格局分析软件FRAGSTATS的支持下 ,计算各绿洲景观格局指标。结果表明 :荒漠类型在四个绿洲景观组分中占绝对优势 ,其次为水浇地 ,但不同绿洲水浇地所占比例相差较大 ,酒泉最高 ,张掖其次 ,高台最低 ;斑块数、斑块密度、边缘密度和平均斑块面积的差异表明 ,张掖绿洲景观类型最多且斑块粒径小 ,而高台则完全相反 ,体现出单调而粒径粗大的荒漠绿洲特征。     

景观格局分布特征的区域差异分析--以鄂尔多斯高原伊金霍洛旗为例

以内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原伊金霍洛旗为研究区域 ,以TM遥感影像解译的 1998年土地利用图为基础资料 ,将伊金霍洛旗划分为毛乌素沙地亚区、乌审凹地亚区和黄土丘陵亚区。从区域尺度 ,利用多样性、优势度、均匀度、分维数、平均斑块形状指数、平均斑块大小、斑块密度指数和斑块体平均斑块边缘等指数 ,对不同景观亚区的景观格局进行了数量分析。结果表明 ,在景观亚区这一尺度上 ,毛乌素沙地亚区一方面对该旗景观格局起控制作用 ,另一方面该亚区所承受的人类活动强度最大 ,景观的破碎化程度最深。而乌审凹地亚区的景观破碎化程度最小 ,人类活动强度最弱。从景观要素来看 ,无论哪一亚区均以天然草地为景观基质 ;不同类型斑块总的格局特点是 ,受人类影响程度愈深的斑块 ,其破碎化程度愈深 ,斑块的复杂性降低。总体而言 ,天然类型的斑块体 ,其斑块复杂性以乌审凹地亚区最为复杂 ,斑块的破碎化程度则以毛乌素沙地亚区最深 ;而人工斑块类型的变化规律在不同斑块类型之间稍有不同。     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

额尔齐斯河流域生态系统格局及变化

本文首先对额尔齐斯河流域气候，地貌，水文等环境因子特征进行了评述，进而阐述了流域生态系统的特征和格局以及在自然和人为干扰作用下的变化。分析结果表明在自然干扰作用下流域生态系统的格局与流域水文情势变化相适应，处于准稳定变化状态，而在人为对流域水文情势扰动下，流域生态系统的格局间接地受到影响。从而产生新的格局，其作用的强度，持久性和生态系统的格局变化程度过错大于大于自然干扰作用下的变化。引额调水工程对额尔齐斯河流域河谷生态系统内部单元格局变化具有重要影响。     

A leakiness index for assessing landscape function using remote sensing

The cover, number, size, shape, spatial arrangement and orientation of vegetation patches are attributes that have been used to indicate how well landscapes function to retain, not ‘leak’, vital system resources such as rainwater and soil. We derived and tested a directional leakiness index (DLI) for this resource retention function. We used simulated landscape maps where resource flows over map surfaces were directional and where landscape patch attributes were known. Although DLI was most strongly related to patch cover, it also logically related to patch number, size, shape, arrangement and orientation. If the direction of resource flow is multi-directional, a variant of DLI, the multi-directional leakiness index (MDLI) can be used. The utility of DLI and MDLI was demonstrated by applying these indices to three Australian savanna landscapes differing in their remotely sensed vegetation patch attributes. These leakiness indices clearly positioned these three landscapes along a function-dysfunction continuum, where dysfunctional landscapes are leaky (poorly retain resources). This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial dependence and the relationship of soil organic carbon and soil moisture in the Luquillo Experimental Forest,Puerto Rico

We used geo-spatial statistical techniques to examine the spatial variation and relationship of soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil moisture (SM) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF), Puerto Rico, in order to test the hypothesis that mountainous terrain introduces spatial autocorrelation and crosscorrelation in ecosystem and soil properties. Soil samples (n = 100) were collected from the LEF in the summer of 1998 and analyzed for SOC, SM, and bulk density (BD). A global positioning system was used to georeference the location of each sampling site. At each site, elevation, slope and aspect were recorded. We calculated the isotropic and anisotropic semivariograms of soil and topographic properties, as well as the cross-variograms between SOC and SM, and between SOC and elevation. Then we used four models (random, linear, spherical and wave/hole) to test the semi-variances of SOC, SM, BD, elevation, slope and aspect for spatial dependence. Our results indicate that all the studied properties except slope angle exhibit spatial dependence within the scale of sampling (200 – 1000 m sampling interval). The spatially structured variance (the variance due to the location of sampling sites) accounted for a large proportion of the sample variance for elevation (99%), BD (90%), SOC (68%), aspect (56%) and SM (44%). The ranges of spatial dependence (the distances within which parameters are spatially dependent) for aspect, SOC, elevation, SM, and BD were 9810 m, 3070 m, 1120 m, 930 m and 430 m, respectively. Cross correlograms indicate that SOC varies closely with elevation and SM depending on the distances between samples. The correlation can shift from positive to negative as the separation distance increases. Larger ranges of spatial dependence of SOC, aspect and elevation indicate that the distribution of SOC in the LEF is determined by a combination of biotic (e.g., litterfall) and abiotic factors (e.g., microclimate and topographic features) related to elevation and aspect. This demonstrates the importance of both elevation and topographic gradients in controlling climate, vegetation distribution and soil properties as well as the associated biogeochemical processes in the LEF.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.